What Will the Web Be in 2020?

Posted on July 16, 2012

Posted by Gerben Meijer in Industry News 0 Comments

Murthy Nukala, the founder and CEO of Adchemy, wrote a piece for TechCrunch yesterday posing the question “How Will The Web Monetize In 2020?” Nukala first explains his recent purchase of a keyboard for his iPad, how that one tool was now transformed into yet another device that he used on a daily basis. He went on to explain how we all went from using one primary device to spreading over our amount of usage to around three (or more) devices.

This increase in device use, and four main reasons of usage, will be one of the causes for a change in how the Internet is use. Nukala explains:

“By 2020, the number of global Internet users is expected to quadruple to 4 billion, and most of these new users will come online using multiple devices. Additionally, existing usage will move significantly from the monolithic computer to mobile, as smart phones, tablets, smart TVs, and who knows what other devices further permeate both work and home life.”

Furthermore, Nukala lists the four categories that will breakdown all Internet applications and reasons for usage:

• Entertainment will either be monetized by the content itself (e.g., paying for a game, or for a subscription to watch a show), and/or by advertising that will be broadcast in nature. Social ads on Facebook may not drive response as much as other online channels, but Facebook’s wide reach and high traffic will make it a natural venue for brand-awareness campaigns (e.g., opening night for a blockbuster movie).

• Core usage will be sold as stand-alone apps or subscription services (e.g., your monthly cell phone plan). Few people want to be advertised to while they are using a device for core usage.

• Episodic usage will mostly be monetized by advertising, which will be more targeted in nature (as opposed to broadcast). I use the term “advertising” broadly — e.g., restaurants that take reservations via the OpenTable app are essentially advertising on a per reservation basis.

• Notifications will be monetized via a combination of advertising, subscriptions and freemiums — all depending on the nature of the notification. Personal productivity notifications — like the app that reminds you to take a break every hour — will probably be free and most likely show ads with the option to upgrade to ad-free. Notifications that are based on some sort of purchase intent — like sale alerts — will be monetized by advertising. Apps that provide an ongoing service — like the app that notifies you when your PS3 at home is turned on — will either be purchased outright or be subscribed to on a monthly basis.

This may look familiar as they are basically the same as the current phone app models. Nukala believes that a new “unit-of-trade” is needed, that it seems the web will be headed for more intent driven applications rather than keyword based.

To read more of Nukala’s article you can head over to TechCrunch right here.

Do you think the web will adept to meet consumer needs? Why or why not?